China's stone industry supply and demand market scale and development trend analysis
Supply: overall production tends to decline
The data released by the Stone Association shows that in recent years, the output of marble slabs has been declining year by year. In 2019, the output of marble slabs from enterprises above designated size was 256 million square meters, down 3.0% year-on-year; the output of granite slabs was 480 million square meters, down year-on-year 0.8%. Affected by the new crown epidemic, in the first quarter of 2020, my country's marble slab output was 61 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 79.0%, a significant drop. The output of granite slabs was 66 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.0%. With the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation, the output of marble and granite slabs nationwide has increased significantly. In May 2020, the national output of marble and granite slabs was 68 million square meters, an increase of 79.6% from the previous month, but it was still down by 4.02% from the same month in 2019.
Looking at the output data of stone slab products in my country's main provinces in the first quarter of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019, the output of stone products in most provinces in the country in the first quarter of 2020 was in a state of negative growth, and the output of Guangxi, Hunan, Jiangsu, Anhui and other provinces showed positive growth. Specific to the main stone production areas, the output of marble and granite slab products in the three major provinces of Hubei, Fujian and Henan. The output of marble and granite slab products in Hubei fell by 86.22%, Fujian fell by 25.55%; Guangxi rose by 50.43%, and Hunan rose by 26.67%. Due to the improvement of the epidemic situation in Hubei Province, the output in May increased significantly, reaching 24,728,800 square meters, ranking first in the country, but it was still down by 11.27% compared with the same month in 2019;
Demand: Demand is directly proportional to the development of the real estate industry
In terms of stone demand, the demand of the stone market is closely related to the development of the real estate industry, and is directly proportional to the development of the real estate industry. In the past two years, the development of the real estate industry has been affected by macro-control. The completed area has declined slightly, and the market size of the stone industry has also shrunk. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the market size of China's construction stone industry is expected to further shrink in 2020, from 6.5 in 2019. 100 million square meters will drop to 560 million square meters in 2020.
In terms of stone trade, the volume of stone imports fluctuated in 2014-2019, but the overall trend was declining. In 2019, my country imported 14.09 million tons of stone, down 3.8% year-on-year; from January to February 2020, stone imports were 1.99 million tons, down 9.3% year-on-year. The export of stone materials was 900,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%.
Stone sales prices rise
With the spread of the epidemic around the world, major stone countries such as Turkey, Iran, Italy, Brazil, and India have experienced more serious epidemics. Production in their own countries has basically stopped, and logistics has basically stopped. In addition, the entry and exit of the main stone-producing countries control personnel, the entry of imported blocks into China has been blocked, the production capacity of stone has decreased, the supply and demand is imbalanced, and the sales price of stone has risen sharply. According to the main business income of the construction stone industry above designated size and the cumulative output of national stone slabs, the average price of stone in April 2020 is 655.65 yuan/㎡, which is 74.69% higher than the average price of 375.32 yuan/㎡ in the first quarter of 2020; Compared with the average price of 438.84 yuan/㎡ for the whole year of 2019, this represents an increase of 49.4%. It can be seen that the stone market ushered in a significant price increase in April after experiencing a quarterly price decline.